The Iowa County Conventions were held today, the second stage in Iowa's caucus process. Remember, the original delegate estimates were Obama 16, Clinton 15, Edwards 14. After today, from Chuck Todd at NBC:

We have final delegate allocation estimates directly from the Iowa Democratic Party based on today's 99 county conventions.  The results, Obama indeed did gain 7 delegates to up his total from 16 (earned on Jan. 3) to 23 now. Clinton upped her total by 1, from 15 to 16 and Edwards dropped 8 delegates to 6. Those six will be up for grabs, perhaps, at the Iowa Democratic Party state convention in June.

Todd guesses at why Clinton did not pick up as many delegates as Obama:

One wonders if the Clinton campaign's trashing of the caucuses will end up hurting her when these caucus states meet to finalize and re-allocate their caucuses during their respective convention processes.

Update: The AP has it at 23/14/7, with one to be decided, so Obama could have a net gain of +7 to +9 according to this analysis.

Update: The AP and the Green Papers now have the count at 25/14/6, a net gain for Obama of 10 on the night.

Last week, just before the Florida primary:

Sarah Swisher, first vice chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, serves on the Democratic National Committee's rules committee.  That committee punished Florida for scheduling its primary today, a week before an approved window.  Friday, Clinton said she will ask her delegates to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan."It's not helpful when you have candidates express themselves in direct conflict to rulings by the DNC," said Swisher.  "It's helpful for those participating in the nomination process to adhere to the rules of the party. We didn't see any letters of support for Florida months ago," said Swisher.
...
"State parties were very well informed about the repercussions of violating the DNC rules," said Swisher.  "Michigan and Florida chose to do so at their own peril and with full warning."

Today it was reported that Swisher, a former Edwards supporter, has endorsed Senator Clinton. Many DNC members throughout the country likely supported the DNC's sanctions against Florida and Michigan.

I'd like to hear Swisher's thoughts now on the Florida and Michigan situation. - Matt

Based on a wide variety of sources, right now it's at Clinton 670, Obama 650, but still with 210 to be allocated from California, 47 from Illinois, and smaller amounts elsewhere. And don't assume that the California numbers will split heavily towards Clinton -  it's the Congressional District delegates, and we just don't know the breakdown yet.

Overall, with previous pledged delegates, and superdelegates, added in, we're at Clinton 919, Obama 823, with 2,025 needed to win. (FL and MI not included).

Late last night NBC News predicted Obama 841, Clinton-837, (+/- 10 delegates). Didn't see a new estimate this morning.

With Edwards dropping out, one question is, what happens to his delegates? Let's take a look:

First, according to 2008 Democratic Convention Watch, Edwards had 27 public superdelegate endorsements. CNN had (actually, still has) it at 36. Doesn't matter. They're all now available. A superdelegate endorsement can change at any time anyway, so Edwards superdelegates are free to support anyone.

Now, on to his pledged delegates. Edwards won 4 delegates in New Hampshire, 14 in Iowa, and 8 in South Carolina. The New Hampshire delegates have been already chosen, so he "keeps" them. Who they end up voting for at the convention is another matter.

In Iowa, Edwards received 14 delegates, but they were split. 5 were state-level delegates, and 9 were Congressional District (CD)-level delegates. The CD-level delegates are basically history. First, there are county conventions, and then CD conventions. Since Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold at the county conventions, he won't have any representation at the CD conventions, and won't get any CD-level delegates. Where they go at this point is impossible to say. But he will "keep" his 5 state-level delegates. By keep, what I mean is that his campaign gets to choose the 5 delegates. As noted in the comments, the state-level delegates are chosen in the state convention, and as Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold, he won't get any state-level delegates either.

South Carolina is more complicated. But reading the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan, they essentially have a convention system similar to Iowa's, except the final number of delegates selected for each candidate has to match the numbers out of the primary. There's no mention of a candidate "releasing" his delegates, so for now, I'll assume Edwards gets to name his 8 delegates, but, I think we need a South Carolina expert to weigh in on this. (Again, who they end up voting for at the convention is another matter).

Remember a couple of things. There is no first-ballot "vote for your candidate" rule at the Democratic Convention. Technically, any delegate is free to vote for any candidate on any ballot. (There may be state rules mandating a vote - we're still looking into that). Therefore, there is no such thing as a "legal" release of delegates. There is a political "release" - almost all delegates will vote for their candidate unless their candidate tells them they don't have to. But from a Rules point of view, a "release" of delegates mean nothing.

And therefore, it doesn't matter whether Edwards "ended" his campaign or "suspended" it as far as his delegates go. My guess is he will tell any delegates he has left that they can vote for who they want, or he could endorse someone and tell his delegates to vote for that person. But it doesn't matter from a rules point of view. They can vote for anybody at any time anyway, regardless of what Edwards did or say today or does in the future. - Matt

Note: As I was finishing writing this, AndreWalker08 wrote an excellent diary on this same subject. But since we approached the topic with different focuses, please read his post and this post to get a fuller picture. - Matt

With all the controversy surrounding the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations at the Democratic Convention, it's worth taking a look at how the process would actually work.

First, what rule did Florida and Michigan break? Section 11A of the Delegate Selection Rules of the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

No meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states, and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be held prior to the first Tuesday in February or after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar year of the national convention. [Except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina].

On Aug 26, 2007, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee stripped Florida (and later Michigan), of all its delegates:

Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states' desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

"I understand how states crave to be first. I understand that they're envious of the role that Iowa and New Hampshiree have traditionally played," said Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "The truth is, we had a process. . . . We're going to back these rules.

Now the Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention ("the Call") states in section II-(B):

Only delegates and alternates selected under a delegate selection procedure approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and in accordance with the rules shall be placed on the Temporary Roll of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

So Michigan and Florida will not be placed on the Temporary Roll. And then it's in the hands of the 2008 Democratic Convention Credentials Committee. From The Call, section VII-(J)(1,2,3):

The Credentials Committee shall determine and resolve questions concerning the seating of delegates and alternates to the Convention pursuant to the resolution entitled the "Relationship Between the 2008 Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee and the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules," which includes the "Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee of the 2008 Democratic National Convention" hereby approved and adopted by the Democratic National Committee, and set forth in full in the Appendix to this Call. The committee shall report to the Convention for final determination and resolution of all such questions.

Challenges to the seating of any delegate or alternate shall be in accordance with the Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee. Any challenge to the seating of a delegate or alternate that is not made in conformity with these rules shall be deemed waived.

Upon the request of members representing twenty percent (20%) of the total votes of the Credentials Committee, a minority report shall be prepared for distribution to the Convention delegates and alternates as part of the committee's report.

And here's where we diverge if the seating is contested or not. If it's not contested, someone will challenge the non-seating of the delegates, the Credentials Committee will likely unanimously approve the challenge, the Committee will recommend in its main report that the delegates should be seated, the convention will approve the seating, and the Michigan and Florida delegates will march onto the floor with great ceremony.

But if the seating is contested, a Minority Report supporting the seating of the two delegations will be issued by the Credentials Committee.

And then we get to the convention. The report of the Credentials Committee is the very first piece of real business to occur at the convention. The Call, VIII-(C)(1)(a,b):

a. The Temporary Chair shall recognize the Chair of the Credentials Committee for up to thirty (30) minutes to present the committee's report unless a longer period of time shall be provided in a special order of business agreed upon by the Convention. The Chair of the committee may present committee amendments, yield part of his or her time to others and may yield for the presentation and disposition of minority reports without losing the right to the floor.

b. The Temporary Chair shall arrange for the orderly presentation of amendments and of minority reports offered at the direction of the committee. Twenty (20) minutes shall be allowed for the presentation of each committee amendment or minority report unless a longer period for any committee amendment or minority report is provided in special orders of business agreed to by the Convention. Time shall be allotted equally to proponents and opponents of each committee amendment or minority report. The questions shall be put on each committee amendment or minority report immediately following its presentation without intervening motion.

And we have a vote, state-by-state, the first meaningful state-by-state roll call at a Democratic Convention since 1980. Clinton would need a majority of the delegates (not including Florida and Michigan) to approve the Minority Report.

And then reality strikes. If Clinton can get a majority of delegates to support the Minority Report, than she has a majority of the delegates supporting her anyway, and she doesn't need Michigan and Florida.

But if she doesn't have a majority of the delegates supporting her, its hard to see why delegates supporting other candidates would vote to seat the two delegations, essentially helping her out. After fighting for the nomination for 2 years, why would Obama or Edwards and their delegates give up the fight in this way. It's just not going to happen. The delegations will NOT be seated if the nomination is contested.

Cross-posted at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch

Everyone's got 2008 Democratic Convention delegate counts, and just about everybody's count is different. Why? Well, it's not the pledged delegates. Most media organizations (CNN, CBS, AP and NBC) are consistent, showing Obama with 38, Clinton with 36 and Edwards with 18 pledged delegates. Then there's the NY Times, which is not including Iowa or Nevada as they haven't selected actual national delegates yet.  Now there are a couple of outlets reporting numbers with Michigan and Florida included, which greatly increases Clinton's lead. The GreenPapers and the MyDD Delegate Counter are tracking this way, and 2008 Democratic Convention Watch has both sets of numbers.

But even assuming no delegates for Florida and Michigan, the superdelegate numbers are different everywhere. As of Jan 22, CNN has it 174/85/34, CBS has it 195/88/41, and the AP, via the Chicago Tribune, has it 200/98/34.

And then there's NBC, which doesn't seem to acknowledge the existence of superdelegates:

"I don't understand why people haven't allocated the superdelegates," [director of surveys for CBS News, Kathy]  Frankovic said. "Certainly, they'll be counted as much" as those selected state by state, she said.

But lets focus on those organizations that do acknowledge superdelegates. 2008 Democratic Convention Watch counts only publicly announced endorsements, and so has it at 173/80/28. Why do CBS and the AP have higher numbers?

"It's very good to stay scientific as much as you can, but you've got to apply reporters' intelligence," a former political director at ABC News, Hal Bruno, said. "My hunch is everybody is so oriented to computers now that all they can do is crunch numbers. You've got to do the reporting. The reporting is as important as the number crunching."
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Mr. Bruno, who headed ABC's political shop for 19 years, said he used to hire a well-connected Democrat and a well-connected Republican for the presidential election year to work contacts in each state. "A lot of superdelegates say they're uncommitted and it's untrue," he said, adding that reporting could usually establish at least that a delegate was leaning toward one candidate or another. The former journalist said he also checked in regularly with people the campaigns hired or assigned to tally delegates.
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Mr. Bruno said that at different times during the campaign season he produced separate tallies of "hatched," "unhatched," "leaning," and "firm" delegates, though he acknowledged that the numbers were usually blended together before being broadcast.

I'm sure that the many of the unannounced endorsements assumed by the media organizations are accurate, but there's no way to know, as they don't publish any information. So 2008 DCW and MyDD will continue to use only public endorsements, we'll note the media counts as a comparison, and we'll keep tracking the numbers until only one candidate is left standing, whether that's sometime this spring, or in Denver in late August.  -Matt

Matt here from 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. As Oreo said, thanks to Jerome for letting us spread our delegate and Democratic Convention obsession to a wider audience.

For those of us who have been around a while, the last time a Democratic Convention had even a  little suspense was 1980, in Madison Square Garden, New York. Ted Kennedy was making a last attempt to try and get the nomination from President Carter. The problem: Rule F(3)(c), which officially bound delegates to the candidate they had been elected for on the first ballot. But with a weak Carter campaign on the horizon, Kennedy thought that if the delegates were released from their pledges, he could get enough votes to get the nomination. The problem was, Carter still had a majority of the delegates, and they voted not to overturn the rule, and Kennedy's campaign was over.

But subsequently, the rules were changed, and now convention delegates are free to vote for whomever they want to. The Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention states:

VIII C(7)(c) Delegates may vote for the candidate of their choice whether or not the name of such candidate was placed in nomination.

The Delegate Selection Rules state:

12 I: No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person's presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.

12 J. Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.

But nowhere does it state that delegates are bound, either legally, or by rule, to vote for the candidate they were elected for, whether on the first ballot, or any subsequent ballot.

Now lets be realistic. The campaigns who put the delegate slates together are not going to put anybody but the most committed loyalists on the ballot. But once those delegates get to the convention they are free to vote for whomever they want. In reality the only way for a candidate to lose those delegates would be for some major political damage to happen to a candidate between the time he or she secures a majority of votes and the convention, and for the candidate to refuse to withdraw. In that scenario, you could see delegates being pressured to change their vote, and they would be able to under the rules. The 796 superdelegates would also be under the same pressure to revoke any endorsements they had made. It's an unlikely scenario, but, the point is, it is possible. Delegates are not bound to the candidates.

According to this article, Charles Dertinger received over the 1000 write-in votes needed to get the Democratic nomination and face Republican incumbent congressman Charlie Dent in PA-15. One more race being contested.